Fundamental view:

Last week was a great week for the greenback.  The support for greenback is favored by the persistent optimism about a large, new US stimulus package of $1.9 trillion, with Democrats moving to pass US President  Joe Biden’s bill without Republican support. Worth noting that despite such move Biden and Republican senators are engaged in negotiations to find common ground. Most of the dollar’s strength came from rising US Treasury yields, which maintain their positive momentum on Friday, despite tepid employment figures. 

US ISM-NY Business Conditions Index on 2^nd February and Europe Markit Services PMI & CPI monthly report on 3^rd February created bullish trend for the pair whereas Europe Retail Sales monthly report on 1^st February and US Construction Spending monthly report & ISM Manufacturing Employment on 2^nd February created bearish trend for the pair.   

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Europe Industrial Production yearly report at Feb 08, Europe CPI monthly report, US JOLTS Job Openings at Feb 09, US CPI monthly report, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Federal Budget Balance at Feb 10 and US Initial Jobless Claims at Feb 11.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.38% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2137 and low at 1.1952 showed a movement of 184 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1949 may open a clean path towards 1.1859 and may take a way down to 1.1765. Should 1.2133 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2227 and 1.2317 respectively. In H4 chart Symmetrical Triangle breakout favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish harami formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.