Fundamental view:

The AUD/USD pair advanced for a second consecutive week, recovering from the 0.7700 threshold. The main reason was the generalized dollar weakness, amid tepid US employment data spiced with some dovish comments from US Federal Reserve head, Jerome Powell. The Fed president said that there’s a long way ahead to achieve full employment, adding that rates will likely remain at lows until the sector is fully recovered.

US CB Employment Trends Index on 8^th Feb and US Real Earnings monthly report on 10^th Feb favored bullish trend whereas Australia NAB Business Confidence on 9^th Feb and Australia MI Inflation Expectation on 11^th Feb favored bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are RBA Meeting Minutes, Fed Governor Bowman Speech at Feb 16, Fed Industrial Production yearly report at Feb 17, Australia Employment Change, US Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at Feb 18, and FOMC Member Rosengren Speech at Feb 19.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.21% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7772 and low at 0.7651 showed a movement of 121 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7684 may open a clean path towards 0.7607 and may take a way down to 0.7563. Should 0.7804 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7848 and 0.7924 respectively. In H4 chart, if breakout of the rising wedge is to the downside then bearish expectation is favored. Also to be noted bearish spinning top formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.