Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the week to show signs of exhaustion in the previous week. The slump was all about demand for the American currency amid renewed strength in government bond yields. On Tuesday of the previous week, the Reserve Bank of Australia had a monetary policy meeting. The central bank left the cash rate unchanged at a record low of 0.10%, as widely anticipated. The QE program was also maintained on hold.

Australia Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI & Home Loans on 1^st March and Australia Current Account on 2^nd March favors bullish trend whereas Australia Commonwealth Bank Services PMI & GDP quarterly report on 3^rd March and US Labor Productivity quarterly report on 4^th March favored bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are RBA Governor Lowe Speech, NAB Business Confidence at Mar 09, US CPI monthly report, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Mar 10, US JOLTS Job Openings, Initial Jobless Claims at Mar 11, and US Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Mar 12.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 2.15% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7838 and low at 0.7622 showed a movement of 216 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7591 may open a clean path towards 0.7499 and may take a way down to 0.7375. Should 0.7807 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7931 and 0.8023 respectively. In H4 chart ascending triangle breakout downside favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.