Fundamental view:

Gold markets have gone back and forth during the course of the week. At the beginning of the week, the data from China revealed that Exports in February made a surge by 60.6% on a yearly basis and beat the market expectation for an increase of 38.9% with a wide margin. As a negative node, Germany’s Destatis reported on Monday that the Industrial Industriction in January contracted by 2.5% on a monthly basis.

US Department of Labor’s weekly publication showed that the Initial Jobless Claims fell to the lowest post-pandemic level of 712K in the week ending March 5. With risk flows starting to dominate financial markets on the back of this upbeat data, the S&P 500 Index climbed to a new all-time high on Thursday and put additional weight on the greenback’s shoulders.              

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Retail Sales monthly report at Mar 16, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Mar 17, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Initial Jobless Claims at Mar 18 for US.

XAU/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.14% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1739.9 and low at 1676.8 showed a movement of 631 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect XAU/USD to show a bearish trend.  The Instrument is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1689.1 may open a clean path towards 1651.4 and may take a way down to 1626.0. Should 1752.2 prove to be unreliable resistance, the XAUUSD may raise upwards 1777.6 and 1815.3 respectively. In H4 chart bearish shark pattern favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.