Fundamental view:

The British pound has gone back and forth during the course of the week and overall formed a bear candle. The interest rates in America seem to be main culprit in creating a lot of noise. In the previous week, The Fed’s dot-plot shows borrowing costs will rise only in 2024.The dovish approach sent the dollar down, but the move turned upside as Treasury yields resumed their rise. US yields remain in the spotlight for markets and they are set to be influenced by new US stimulus, final GDP and other data. In the UK, a vaccination slowdown, jobs, inflation and retail sales figures are of interest.

US TIC Net Foreign Purchases of Domestic Treasury Bonds & Notes on 15^th March and US Fed Industrial Production monthly report on 16^th March framed uptrend whereas US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on 17^th March and US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index & Philadelphia on 18^th March framed downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Chair Powell Speech at Mar 22, UK Claimant Count Change, BoE Governor Bailey Speech, Fed Chair Powell Testimony at Mar 23, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report at Mar 24, BoE Governor Bailey Speech, US GDP quarterly report at Mar 25, BoE FPC Meeting Minutes, PCE Price Index at Mar 26.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.01% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.4002 and low at 1.3809 showed a movement of 193 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.3778 may open a clean path towards 1.3697 and may take a way down to 1.3585. Should 1.3971 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.4083 and 1.4164 respectively. Chart formation of rounding top pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Bearish engulfing pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.