Fundamental view:

Euro showed a bearish trend against greenback in the previous week. Europe’s worsening covid conditions and another upcoming US infrastructure boost have put pressure on the Euro. COVID-19 cases are increasing in the old continent, and it has been weighing on the euro. After Italy and France imposed new restrictions on most of their populations, Germany extended its lockdown through April 18.

US Existing Home Sales on 22^nd March and US Core PCE Price Index yearly report on 26^th March created bullish trend for the pair whereas Europe Industrial New Orders monthly report & US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index on 23^rd March and US Wholesale Inventories monthly report & US Michigan Consumer Sentiment on 26^th March created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Mar 30, Europe Unemployment Rate, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change at Mar 31, US Initial Jobless Claims, Europe Markit Manufacturing PMI US ISM Manufacturing PMI, OPEC Meeting at April 01 and US Nonfarm Payrolls at April 02.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.34% than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1947 and low at 1.1762 showed a movement of 185 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1721 may open a clean path towards 1.1649 and may take a way down to 1.1536. Should 1.1906 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2019 and 1.2091 respectively. Chart formation of a head and shoulders pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Shooting star formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.