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ANZ Biz confidence & activity outlook weighs kiwi

Mar 31, 2021 05:30

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Final readings of New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence and Activity Outlook slipped below the initial forecasts and prior read-outs in the latest announcement showing -4.0 and 16.6% figures respectively. The key points of the readings were “All forward-looking activity indicators were lower in the second half of the month. The preliminary results would not have captured the full lockdown impact. The construction sector reported being much less busy, though they still had the strongest activity expectations across the economy. Inflation pressures remain strong.”

New Zealand’s central bank has eased restrictions on bank dividend payments, allowing them to distribute as much as 50% of net income to shareholders. The decision partially reverses steps the Reserve Bank took in April last year to provide more credit to the economy via the banking system. The remaining 50% limit will be lifted in July 2022 subject to no worsening in economic conditions, the central bank said in a statement Wednesday in Wellington.

“Ongoing uncertainty is expected to constrain business investment and household spending growth,” Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand said in a statement Wednesday. “Given the uncertainties ahead, it is appropriate to retain some restrictions on the dividends that banks can pay.”

On the other hand, Hopes of a $3.0 trillion US infrastructure package and faster vaccinations in the West are impacting the market mood and creating an uptrend for the greenback. Also favoring the mood for the dollar could be increasing odds of the US-Iran talks over the nuclear deal.

Allegations that Russia stole thousands of the US State Department data and the coronavirus (COVID-19) woes in the European Union (EU) and Australia also puts pressure on the kiwi.

NZD/USD 4 Hour Chart:

Support: 0.6959 (S1), 0.6936 (S2), 0.6899 (S3).

Resistance: 0.7020 (R1), 0.7057 (R2), 0.7080 (R3).

China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI in March is expected to precede the PMI of 51.2 and 50.6 which could give direction to the NZD/USD but as of now recent catalysts weighing on the new Zealand dollar we expect a bearish trend for NZD/USD.

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