Fundamental view:

The Euro has fallen a bit during the course of the week, reaching down towards the 1.17 level before bouncing on Thursday as traders closed out their positions heading into the Easter weekend.  The dollar peaked on Wednesday, as US Treasury yields reached late on Tuesday a fresh over one-year highs, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note hitting 1.77%. The greenback’s strength faded afterwards on thursday, as the same yield retreated to 1.67% ahead of the close.

Europe CPI m/m & HICP monthly report & Europe Unemployment on 31^st March created bullish trend for the pair. whereas US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index on 29^th March, Europe Import Price Index yearly report, Europe Retail Sales y/y, Europe PPI y/y & US CB Consumer Confidence Index on 30^th March created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are IMF Meeting, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at April 05, Europe Unemployment Rate, US JOLTS Job Openings at April 06, FOMC Minutes at April 07, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US Initial Jobless Claims and Fed Chair Powell Speech at April 08.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.29% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1794 and low at 1.1704 showed a movement of 90 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1711 may open a clean path towards 1.1663 and may take a way down to 1.1622. Should 1.1801 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.1842 and 1.1891 respectively. Chart formation of a Bearish butterfly pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish Engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.