Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar has fallen significantly during the course of the week but also recovered as traders covered positions heading into the Easter weekend. Market Sentiment continues to lead the way, mainly centered on a US economic comeback, moreover after US President Joe Biden finally unveiled his investment proposal. In the past week, Australian data was mixed whereas US data was mostly upbeat.

Australia Building Approvals monthly report on 31^th March and US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change on 1^st April created bullish trend for the pair whereas US CB Consumer Confidence Index on 30^th March and Australia Trade Balance on 1^st April created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are IMF Meeting, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at April 05, RBA Interest Rate Decision, US JOLTS Job Openings at April 06, FOMC Minutes at April 07, US Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Chair Powell Speech at April 08 and RBA Financial Stability Review at April 09.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.20% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7664 and low at 0.7532 showed a movement of 132 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7539 may open a clean path towards 0.7469 and may take a way down to 0.7407. Should 0.7671 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7733 and 0.7803 respectively. In H4 chart inverted cup and handle pattern formation favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted shooting star formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.