Fundamental view:

The US dollar has fallen significantly during the week to reach down towards the ¥109 level. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve published the Minutes of its March meeting, reiterating that the accommodative monetary policy will remain in place until substantial further progress is achieved on their employment and inflation goals. The document was no surprise and failed to trigger some action. The unfavorable US employment report has impacted the dollar last week.

On the other hand, Japan published its February Current Account , which posted a surplus of ¥2916.9 billion, largely surpassing the ¥1996 billion expected. The Trade Balance for the same month improved to ¥524.2 billion from ¥-130.1 billion in the previous month.

Japan Household Spending yearly report & Overtime Pay yearly report on 6^th April and Japan Coincident Index on 7^th April created bullish movement whereas  US EIA Crude Oil Imports Change on 7^th April and Japan Current Account n.s.a.on 8^th April created bearish movement for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are BoJ M2 Money Stock yearly report at April 12, US CPI monthly report at April 13, BoJ Governor Kuroda Speech, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Chair Powell Speech at April 14, US Retail Sales monthly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at April 15 and US Building Permits at April 16.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.19% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 110.75 and low at 109.00 showed a movement of 175 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 50 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 108.85 may open a clean path towards 108.05 and may take a way down to 107.10. Should 110.60 prove to be unreliable resistance, the USDJPY may raise upwards 111.55 and 112.35 respectively.  In H4 chart, Formation of inverted cup and handle pattern indicates reversal of the trend creating prospects of a bearish trend Along with a shooting star formation braces our expectation.