Fundamental view:

The British pound rallied a bit during the week. Pound has managed to edge higher amid the UK reopening and dollar weakness. Apart from Covid news, Pound is set to rock in response to a series of top-tier UK data points. The main dollar drivers came from critical data points. In the meantime, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that the bank would first taper its bond-buying scheme and only then raise interest rates.

US Core CPI monthly report on 13^th April and US Natural Gas Storage on 15^th April created bearish trend whereas US Federal Budget Balance on 12^th April and Britain Construction Output on 13^th April created bullish trend for the pair.                       

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are UK Claimant Count Change at April 20, BoE Governor Bailey Speech, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at April 21, UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations, US Initial Jobless Claims at April 22, UK Retail Sales monthly report, UK Flash Manufacturing PMI and US Markit Manufacturing PMI at April 23.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.55% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3842 and low at 1.3669 showed a movement of 173 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout below 1.3723 may open a clean path towards 1.3609 and may take a way down to 1.3550. Should 1.3896 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.3955 and 1.4069 respectively. Chart formation of bearish butterfly pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Harami pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.