Fundamental view:

The British pound has initially tried to rally during the last week but from Wednesday it gave up against the safe haven dollar.  The upbeat market sentiment and optimism about Britain’s vaccines have been effected by concerns about the virus and a hesitant market mood. The world seem to be concerned about India’s record daily cases which surpasses 300,000 – and increases in other countries. For developed countries such as Britain, it means a higher risk of incoming variants and also an economic slowdown due to falling demand. These concerns favored the safe-haven dollar.

On the other hand, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson warns of a potential new COVID-19 wave in the winter. But his concerns had come amid a successful local vaccination campaign and a persistent drop in infections, hospitalizations and deaths. The situation looks like improving across the Western world. 

Britain Average Weekly Earnings on 20th April and US Existing Home Sales on 22nd April favored downtrend for the pair whereas Britain PPI Input monthly report on 21st April and Britain Retail Sales on 23rd April favored uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report at April 26, UK Nationwide HPI monthly report, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at April 27, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at April 28, US GDP quarterly report at April 29 and US Employment Cost Index at April 30.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.19% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.4009 and low at 1.3810 showed a movement of 199 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bullish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout above 1.3891 may open a clean path towards 1.4095 and may take a way up to 1.4180. Should 1.3782 prove to be unreliable support, the GBPUSD may sink downwards 1.3696 and 1.3583 respectively. Chart formation of bullish butterfly pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bullish trend. Harami pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bullish trend.