Fundamental view:

The Euro rallied in the past week and reached April highs after the US Federal Reserve announced its monetary policy decision but was unable to sustain gains and finished the week flat a handful of pips below the 1.2100 level. The central bank of US maintained its monetary policy unchanged as widely anticipated by making minor adjustments to the accompanying statement. US policymakers saw inflation and employment performing somewhat better than when they met before but maintained their cautious stance about the persistent risks to the economy.

Europe Jobseekers Total on 27^th April and US Goods Trade Balance & US Wholesale Inventories monthly report on 28^th April favored bullish trend for the pair whereas US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report on 26^th April and Europe Import Price Index monthly report on 29^th April created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed Chair Powell Speech at May 03, Europe Government Budget Balance at May 04, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at May 05, Europe Retail Sales monthly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at May 06, US Nonfarm Payrolls at May 07.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.41% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2150 and low at 1.2016 showed a movement of 134 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 50 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1971 may open a clean path towards 1.1927 and may take a way down to 1.1837. Should 1.2105 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2195 and 1.2239 respectively. Chart formation of a descending scallop pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Shooting star formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.