Fundamental view:

The British pound has shown a rally during the course of the week but gave back a lot of the gains on Friday and was trading at 1.3800 level at week closing. The risk event will be the Bank of England MPR, where the central bank is expected to upgrade its economic projections with a stronger Q2 GDP forecast and a lower peak expected in the unemployment rate than previously assumed. Alongside this, there is a good case for the BoE to announce a slight tapering of asset purchases. 

US Core Durable Goods Orders on 26^th April and US Core PCE Price Index monthly report & US Employment Cost Index quarterly report on 30^th April favored downtrend for the pair whereas US HPI monthly report on 27^th April and US Goods Trade Balance & US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change on 28^th April created uptrend for the pair. 

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed Chair Powell Speech at May 03, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at May 05, BoE Interest Rate Decision, BoE Governor Bailey Speech, US Initial Jobless Claims at May 06, US Nonfarm Payrolls at May 07.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.23% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3977 and low at 1.3803 showed a movement of 174 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.3747 may open a clean path towards 1.3688 and may take a way down to 1.3573. Should 1.3921 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.4036 and 1.4095 respectively. Chart formation of symmetrical triangle pattern breakout in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Bearish engulfing pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.