Fundamental view:

EUR/USD trades around 1.2171 in the end of the week which has recovered all of the previous week´s losses and reached its monthly high at 1.2171. This is all because of the disappointing US employment report which has fueled the dollar’s sell-off at the end of the week, as the numbers confirmed the US Federal Reserve stance of keeping rates lower for longer. The American economic is showing signs of recovery in the last few days. It is clear that the country is recovering at a faster pace than its major counterparts. On the other hand, the EU economy is also turning the corner from the coronavirus crisis. Officials have begun analyzing easing travel restrictions on the bloc as the immunization campaign has gathered speed.

US Factory Orders monthly report on 4^th May and Europe Government Budget Balance on 5^th May favored bearish trend for the pair whereas Europe Retail Sales on 3^rd May and Europe Factory Orders monthly report on 6^th May created bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator, US JOLTS Job Openings at May 11, US Core CPI monthly report, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at May 12, US Initial Jobless Claims at May 13, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US Retail Sales monthly report and Fed Industrial Production yearly report at May 14.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.17% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2171 and low at 1.1986 showed a movement of 185 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1.2227 may open a clean path towards 1.2291 and may take a way up to 1.2412. Should 1.2042 prove to be unreliable support, the EURUSD may sink downwards 1.1921 and 1.1857 respectively. Chart formation of a rounding bottom pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bullish trend. Bullish engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bullish trend.