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How to trade the Channel Pattern

Apr 17, 2021 07:05

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We all love to ride the roller coaster, isn’t it?  It has its ups and downs and we cheer every time it changes its vertical direction. Sometimes it goes in an upward direction and sometimes we get butterflies in the stomach when it goes in the downward direction. We can feel that thrill, right? Just like the roller coaster ride, the same thing happens in Channel pattern trading.  The Market has its own ups and downs. But, not every trader is able to take the ultimate enjoyment of this ride. Because Predicting the market is really a difficult job.

Trading channel chart patterns would have to be one of the easiest technical analysis techniques to implement. The channel is a powerful yet often overlooked chart pattern and combines several forms of technical analysis to provide traders with potential points for entering and exiting trades, as well as controlling risk.

In this topic, we are going to discuss how channel helps us to recognize the opportune trend (high & low) and how we can take benefit of this ride.

Figure out a high and a low in the past. This will be the starting point of the channel. Find another subsequent high, as well as, a subsequent low. Connect the two highs to draw a line which is called as ‘Upper Trend Line’ and connect the two lows to draw another line called ‘Lower Trend Line’.

If the above two connected trend lines so obtained are near parallel, a channel is formed. Thus, there are at least two contact points at the Upper trend line and at least two contact points at the lower trend line. More contact points increase the effectiveness and reliability of the channel. Channels can form on all time frames and can last as short as an hour, or last for months on end.

The trading channel technique often works best on Forex and Stocks with a medium amount of volatility, which can be important in determining the amount of profit possible from a trade. For instance, if volatility is low, then the channel won’t be very big, which means smaller potential profits. Bigger channels are typically associated with more volatility, meaning larger potential profits.

Channels can sometimes provide buy and sell points and there are several rules for entering long or short positions:

  • When the price hits the top of the channel, sell your existing long position and/or take a short position.
  • When the price is in the middle of the channel, do nothing if you have no trades, or hold your current trades.
  • When the price hits the bottom of the channel, cover your existing short position and/or take a long position.

 

There are two exceptions to these rules:

  • If the price breaks through the top or bottom of the channel, then the channel is no longer intact. Do not initiate any more trades until a new channel develops.
  • If the price drifts between the channels for a prolonged period of time, a new narrower channel may be established. At this point, enter or exit near the extremes of the narrower channel.

 

During a rising channel, focus on buying near the bottom of the channel and exiting near the top. Be wary of shorting since the trend is up. For example, an ascending channel is depicted below in EURUSD chart.

During a descending channel, focus on shorting near the top of the channel and exiting near the bottom. Be wary of initiating longs in a falling channel since the trend is down.

Other forms of technical analysis are sometimes used to enhance the accuracy of the signals from the channel and verify the overall strength of the up or down move. Some other tools to use while channel trading include:

  • The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) will often be near zero during horizontal channels. The MACD line crossing the signal line can also point out potential long trades near the bottom of a channel or short trades near the top of the channel.
  • A stochastic crossover may also signal a buying opportunity near the bottom of the channel or a selling opportunity near the top.
  • Volume can also aid in trading channels. Volume is often lower in channels, especially near the middle of the channel. Breakouts are often associated with high volume. If the volume isn’t rising on a breakout, there is a greater likelihood the channel will continue.

Channels can provide built-in money-management capabilities in the form of stop-loss and take-profit levels. Here are the basic rules for determining these points:

  • If you have bought at the bottom of the channel, exit and take your profits at the top of the channel, but also set a stop-loss order slightly below the bottom of the channel.
  • If you have taken a short position at the top of the channel, exit and take profit at the bottom of the channel. Also, set a stop-loss order slightly above the top of the channel.

 

Here is a descending channel in GBPUSD with potential stop-loss and exit points.

Determining Trade Reliability

Channels provide the ability to determine the likelihood of success with a trade. This is done through something known as confirmations. Confirmations represent the number of times the price has rebounded from the top or bottom of the channel. These are the important confirmation levels to remember:

  • 1-2: Weak channel (not tradeable)
  • 3-4: Adequate channel (tradeable)
  • 5-6: Strong channel (reliable)
  • 6+: Very strong channel (more reliable)

 

Estimating Trade Length

The amount of time a trade takes to reach a selling point from a buy point can also be calculated using channels. This is done by recording the amount of time it has taken for trades to execute in the past, then averaging the amount of time for the future. This estimate is based on the assumption that price movements are roughly equal in terms of time and price. However, it is only an estimate and may not always be accurate.

Conclusion

Channel patterns are a commonly used technical analysis tool and majorly a choice of breakout traders. The best part of the trading channel pattern is that it can be used in any kind of market condition; however, a specific trend has to be there. Trading the Channel Pattern by only observing the chart may not be helpful.  Using oscillators and indicators also helps us to read the chart better and to get better entry and exit decisions.

Happy Trading!

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