Fundamental view:

The Euro initially fell during the starting of the week but later gained some strength against greenback. The reason behind that is the news – Federal Reserve is going to have to tighten its monetary policy much sooner. And the people began to reevaluate the situation as the Federal Reserve has been plain in its language that it is going to stay loose for longer. This worked against the value of the US dollar and euro took advantage of this situation. On the other hand, comments from Robert Kaplan, the Dallas Fed President, about the need to cut back on support boosted the greenback. 

Europe Sentix Investor Confidence on 10th May and Europe Wholesale Price Index monthly report on 11^th May created bullish trend for the pair whereas US CB Employment Trends Index on 10^th May and US EIA Crude Oil Stocks on 12^th May created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Europe Employment Change quarterly report, Europe GDP quarterly report at May 18, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, FOMC Minutes at May 19, ECB President Lagarde Speech, US Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at May 20 and US Existing Home Sales at May 21.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.09% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2182 and low at 1.2052 showed a movement of 130 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1.2195 may open a clean path towards 1.2254 and may take a way up to 1.2325. Should 1.2065 prove to be unreliable support, the EURUSD may sink downwards 1.1994 and 1.1935 respectively. Chart formation of a bullish shark in H4 chart sets prospects for a bullish trend. Three outside up formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bullish trend.