Fundamental view:

The Euro initially rallied during the course of the week to reach a high of 1.2266 but then ran into to selling price. Financial markets rotated around US inflation expectations and their possible effects on the current monetary policy. However, Federal Reserve officials succeeded in cooling hopes for a soon-to-come tightening, leaving speculative interest without its main motto.

US S&P/CS HPI Composite-20 yearly report on 25^th May and US EIA Crude Oil Stocks on 26^th May created downtrend for the pair whereas Europe EU Leaders Summit on 24^th May and Europe PPI yearly report on 25^th May created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are OPEC Meeting, Europe Unemployment Rate, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Jun 01, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change Jun 03, Europe Retail Sales monthly report, Fed Chair Powell Speech and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Jun 04.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.18% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2266 and low at 1.2132 showed a movement of 134 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 50 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.2126 may open a clean path towards 1.2062 and may take a way down to 1.1992. Should 1.2260 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2330 and 1.2394 respectively. Chart formation of a Bearish butterfly pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.