Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the week, as we continue to see a lot of noise when it comes to the idea of inflation. Inflation is good for commodities, and thus by extension it is potentially good for Australia. The central bank left interest rates unchanged as expected in its June meeting, also holding the yield on the 3-year Australian Government bond. 

Australia Building Approvals monthly report and & Australia Business Inventories quarterly report on 1^st June and Australia Final Consumption Expenditure quarterly report on 2^nd June favored bearish trend whereas Australia RBA Private Sector Credit monthly report on 31^st May and Australia AIG Manufacturing Index on 1^st June favored bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are NAB Business Confidence, US JOLTS Job Openings at Jun 08, RBA Assistant Governor Kent Speech, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Jun 09, US Core CPI monthly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at Jun 10 and US Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Jun11.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.30% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7772 and low at 0.7645 showed a movement of 127 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7667 may open a clean path towards 0.7593 and may take a way down to 0.7540. Should 0.7794 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7847 and 0.7921 respectively. In H4 chart Symmetrical triangle breakout favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.