Fundamental view:

The Euro has fallen during the course of the trading week and ending with a bearish candle. Nonfarm Payroll release seems to have had one role in market favoring the greenback. The US gained more jobs than expected, 850,000. But moderate wage growth at 3.6% and the lack of substantial upward revisions were enough to trigger an upward move for dollar. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has reinforced those calling to decrease monetary policy support in response to the economic recovery. While Overall, Waller provided some support to the dollar. All the catalysts favored the greenback.

Europe Export Price Index yearly report on 28th June, US S&P/CS HPI Composite-20 n.s.a. monthly report on 29th June favored bullish trend whereas Europe PPI monthly report on 30th June and Europe US Factory Orders monthly report on 2nd July favored bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Europe Retail Sales monthly report, Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at July 06, FOMC Minutes at July 07, US Initial Jobless Claims, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at July 08 and US Wholesale Inventories monthly report at July 09.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.26% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1944 and low at 1.1806 showed a movement of 138 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1797 may open a clean path towards 1.1733 and may take a way down to 1.1659. Should 1.1935 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2009 and 1.2073 respectively. Chart formation of an inverted cup and handle pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Harami formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.