Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar has fallen a bit during the course of the week. The Nonfarm payroll along with the Fed’s Robert Kalpan’s move favored the US dollar which is the main driver behind the bearish trend for the pair.

Australia RBA Private Sector Credit monthly report on 29th June and US Average Weekly Hours report on 2nd July created bullish trend whereas US Pending Home Sales monthly report on 30th June and US Construction Spending monthly report on 1st July created a bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Australia Retail sales monthly report at July 05, RBA Interest Rate Decision, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at July 06, FOMC Minutes at July 07, RBA Governor Lowe Speech, US Initial Jobless Claims, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at July 08 and US Wholesale Inventories monthly report at July 09.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.20% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7601 and low at 0.7443 showed a movement of 158 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7444 may open a clean path towards 0.7365 and may take a way down to 0.7286. Should 0.7602 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7681 and 0.7760 respectively. In H4 chart rounding top pattern formation favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.