Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the trading and ended forming a bullish candle. In Australia, regional lockdowns have been once again extended, and macroeconomic data has continued to reflect the poor performance of the economy. Whereas US Senate has finally passed a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill to rebuild the US economy and the Congressmen prepared a framework to approve a $3.5 trillion Democratic budget.

US Nonfarm Productivity quarterly report on 10th August and US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on 11th August created uptrend whereas US CB Employment Trends Index on 9th August and Australia NAB Business Confidence on 10th August created downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index at Aug 16, RBA Meeting Minutes, US Retail Sales monthly report, US Fed Industrial Production monthly report at Aug 17, FOMC Minutes at Aug 18, Australia Employment Change, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and US Initial Jobless Claims at Aug 19.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.50% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7389 and low at 0.7316 showed a movement of 73 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7327 may open a clean path towards 0.7285 and may take a way down to 0.7254. Should 0.7400 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7431 and 0.7473 respectively. A bearish bat pattern formation in H4 chart favors a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.