Fundamental view:

Aussie traded low against greenback this week. China published weaker-than-anticipated economic data earlier this week as Industrial Production and Retail Sales rose at. Concerns about global growth dominated financial markets. Also Fed published the minutes of its latest FOMC meeting which indicated that the policymakers are ready to discuss the timing of tapering in the upcoming meeting. The market is pricing in that the Fed will kick-start reducing facilities in the last quarter of the year, despite some policymakers believing it would be better to wait until 2022. Amidst all this catalysts, Aussie is on downtrend.

Australia Wage Price Index yearly report on 18th August and US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index on 19th August created uptrend whereas US Fed Capacity Utilization Rate on 17th August and Australia Employment Change on 19th August created downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Aug 25, Australia Private New Capital Expenditure quarterly report, US GDP quarterly report, Us Initial Jobless Claims at Aug 26, Australia Retail Sales monthly report and Fed Chair Powell Speech at Aug 27. 

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.22% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7373 and low at 0.7106 showed a movement of 267 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7040 may open a clean path towards 0.6939 and may take a way down to 0.6773. Should 0.7307 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7473 and 0.7574 respectively. In H4 chart double top pattern breakout favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted harami formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.