Fundamental view:

The Euro has rallied a bit during the course of the week. The Geopolitical tensions in Afghanistan and the comments from US Federal Reserve Robert Kaplan who said that September is the time to outline tapering and start it in October, were behind the fall of US dollar. James Bullard, another member of the central bank, also made comments in the same direction.

Europe Industrial Sales yearly report 26th August and Europe Consumer Confidence Index on 27th August created downtrend whereas Europe Markit Services PMI on 23rd August and Europe Ifo Current Business Situation on 25th August created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Europe GPD quarterly report, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Aug 31, Europe Unemployment Rate, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Sep 01, US Initial Jobless Claims at Sep 02 and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Sep 03.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.01% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1802 and low at 1.1690 showed a movement of 112 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1.1835 may open a clean path towards 1.1875 and may take a way up to 1.1947. Should 1.1723 prove to be unreliable support, the EURUSD may sink downwards 1.1651 and 1.1611 respectively. Chart formation of a bullish flag pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bullish trend. Bullish harami formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bullish trend.