Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit against the greenback during the course of the trading week. In US, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s which was much anticipated speech at the bank’s annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday disappointed rate hawks hoping for an immediate change in policy which lead to the fall of US dollar. The Fed’s bond purchase program of $120 billion a month of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities also impacted the US dollar. The reduction of the purchases will permit Treasury rates to rise but the Fed is determined to prevent a rapid increase.

US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report on 25th August and Australia Private New Capital Expenditure quarterly report on 26th August created downtrend whereas US Markit Composite PMI on 23rd August and US New Home Sales on 24th August created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are RBA Private Sector Credit monthly report, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Aug 31, Australia GDP quarterly report, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Sep 01, US Initial Jobless Claims at Sep 02 and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Sep 03.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.76% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7317 and low at 0.7119 showed a movement of 198 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bullish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 50 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 0.7380 may open a clean path towards 0.7447 and may take a way up to 0.7578. Should 0.7182 prove to be unreliable support, the AUDUSD may sink downwards 0.7051 and 0.6984 respectively. In H4 chart rounding bottom pattern favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted Bullish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.