Fundamental view:

Euro has lost some ground against the greenback this week. This week started with the news of Ever Grande crisis the largest Chinese property. Evergrande, was at risk of default, which could result in a disruption of the entire country’s financial system. Meanwhile, The US Federal Reserve had a monetary policy meeting and announced that economic progress in the US which gave the central bank the chance to retrieve part of its massive financial support. And the US policymakers have left its current monetary policy unchanged and clarified that trimming its massive stimulus program would not imply a following rate hike. Amidst all this, greenback was stronger than the euro.

Europe Trade Balance on 20th Sep and Europe Ifo Business Climate on 24th Sep created downtrend whereas US Current Account on 21st Sep and US Markit Manufacturing PMI on 23rd Sep created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are ECB Private Sector Loans yearly report, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report at Sep 27, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Sep 28, Fed Chair Powell Speech at Sep 29, Europe Unemployment Rate, US GDP quarterly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at Sep 30 and US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Oct 01.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.75% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1756 and low at 1.1684 showed a movement of 72 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1684 may open a clean path towards 1.1648 and may take a way down to 1.1612. Should 1.1756 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.1792 and 1.1828 respectively. Chart formation of a bearish shark pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.