Fundamental view:

Pound showed a uptrend against the US dollar in this week. The US economy has made a gain of just 194,000 jobs in September which is far worse than expectation of 500K. Despite, upward revisions and soft gains in leisure and hospitality – related to the spread of the Delta covid variant made the data look better. Soon the dollar fell but it can be short-lived as the Fed has taper plan at its hand. Covid – 19 cases remain elevated in Britain in comparison to its peers. Amidst all the tensions, The US dollar fell and made the cable to climb despite of various British issues.

US EIA Gasoline Production Change on 6th Oct and US Private Nonfarm Payrolls on 8th Oct created bearish trend whereas US Factory Orders monthly report on 4th Oct and Britain Markit/CIPS Services PMI on 5th Oct created bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are UK Claimant Count Change, US JOLTS Job Openings at Oct 12, UK Manufacturing Production monthly report, UK GDP monthly report, FOMC Minutes at Oct 13, US Initial Jobless Claims, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Oct 14 and US Retail Sales monthly report at Oct 15.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.52% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3657 and low at 1.3532 showed a movement of 125 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a downtrend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average but the MACD trades to the upside. A firm breakout below 1.3544 may fall to 1.3475 and may take a way down to  1.3419. Should 1.3669 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards to 1.3725 and 1.3794 respectively. In H4 chart, if breakout of the Symmetrical triangle is to the downside then bearish expectation is favored. And it has to be noted that shooting star formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.