Fundamental view:

The Euro showed recovery against the greenback after reaching to a fresh low of 1.1523 in 2021.  After the last week’s uptrend, American dollar gave up ground although the shared currency was among its weakest rivals. This week, the dollar showed strength on expectations that the US Federal Reserve will start tapering its massive bond-buying program as soon as next November amidst persistent inflationary pressures. On the other hand, downbeat European data and comments from ECB policymakers made the Euro pair weak.

Europe Industrial Production monthly report on 11th Oct and Europe CPI monthly report on 15th Oct created bearish trend whereas Europe Wholesale Price Index monthly report on 12th Oct and US Michigan Consumer Sentiment on 15th Oct created bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Industrial Production yearly report at Oct 18, Europe Core CPI monthly report, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Oct 20, EU Leaders Summit, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims at Oct 21 and Markit Manufacturing PMI at Oct 22.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.13% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1624 and low at 1.1524 showed a movement of 100 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 50 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1.1641 may open a clean path towards 1.1683 and may take a way up to 1.1741. Should 1.1541 prove to be unreliable support, the EURUSD may sink downwards to 1.1483 and 1.1441 respectively. Chart formation of a bullish shark pattern in H4 chart raises prospects for a bullish trend. Bullish harami formation in H4 chart further escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.