Fundamental view:

American dollar advanced again the US dollar during the trading course of the week. The Australian dollar rallied despite tepid local data. The minutes of the FOMC monetary policy meeting held on September 21-22 revealed that the US central bank is remaining on track to begin tapering its bond purchases in 2021. Moreover, a growing number of policymakers were worried about the continuous rise in inflationary pressure which is forcing investors to bring forward the likely timing of a potential rate hike.

US PPI monthly report on 14th Oct and US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations on 15th Oct created bullish trend whereas Australia NAB Business Conditions on 12th Oct and Australia Employment Change on 14th Oct created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Industrial Production yearly report at Oct 18, RBA Meeting Minutes at Oct 19, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Oct 20, RBA Governor Lowe Speech, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims at Oct 21 and Markit Manufacturing PMI at Oct 22.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.37% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7439 and low at 0.7291 showed a movement of 148 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bullish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 0.7472 may open a path towards 0.7530 and may take a way up to 0.7620. Should 0.7324 prove to be unreliable support, the AUDUSD may fall downwards to 0.7234 and 0.7176 respectively. In H4 chart inverse head and shoulders pattern formation favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted Bullish harami formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.