Fundamental view:

Aussie went back and forth against the greenback during the trading course of the week.  Firmer gold prices played a supportive role, as the bright metal soared this week. The dismal Chinese data undermined demand for high-yielding assets which benefited American currency. But the market’s mood reversed by the US Q3 earnings reports. Upbeat results sent Wall Street to record highs and undermined demand for the greenback, despite rising US government bond yields. The Reserve Bank of Australia released the Minutes of its latest meeting, although there was nothing to see there. The document was just like a replica of the September statement, showing that policymakers are confident about the economic recovery but reiterated that a rate hike is unlikely until at least 2024.

US Existing Home Sales monthly report on 21st Oct and US Markit Services PMI on 22nd Oct created bearish trend whereas US Fed Industrial Production yearly report on 18th Oct and US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change on 20th Oct created bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Oct 26, RBA Weighted Median CPI quarterly report, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report at Oct 27, US GDP quarterly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at Oct 28, Australia Retail Sales monthly report and US Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Oct 29.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.42% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7546 and low at 0.7378 showed a movement of 168 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bullish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 0.7547 may open a clean path towards 0.7630 and may take a way up to 0.7715. Should 0.7379 prove to be unreliable support, the AUDUSD may sink downwards 0.7294 and 0.7211 respectively. In H4 chart ascending and inverted scallops pattern favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted Bullish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.