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Relationship Between Swiss Franc and Gold

Oct 29, 2021 08:41

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Most of the world’s gold is refined in Switzerland and gold accounts for around 20% of Swiss exports. This close relationship to gold means that the CHF moves quite closely with gold. It is not a secret on the Forex market that the Swiss Franc is highly correlated with the gold price. In fact, according to CNBC, the leading investment bank in the United States, Goldman Sachs went as far as to say that CHF might become a gold proxy. Gold is to Switzerland, what wine is to the French. Yet, if we go for deeper analysis, we can discover that there are at least two major factors that link the gold prices with the exchange rates of the Swiss franc. Let us go through each of those in more detail.

Swiss National Bank and Gold

There is strong positive sentiment toward gold in Switzerland. The Swiss people abandoned the gold standard in May 2000. Until that year, the Swiss franc had to be backed by a minimum of 40 percent in gold reserves. Switzerland remains the world’s gold hub. Most of the gold produced in the world transits physically through this country, where four of the world’s major refineries are located.

Reason behind why there is always a relationship with Gold

Switzerland’s currency Swiss franc has a strong relationship with gold.   Both the Swiss franc (CHF) and gold bullion acted as reserve ‘currencies’ thereby establishing a relationship between the price of gold and the Swiss franc. Despite some differences, the Swiss franc and the price of gold are related and the similarities between the two can be clearly identified. 

The first factor connecting these two major variables (Swiss franc and gold prices) is the huge amount of gold reserves. The Swiss National Bank, or SNB, is one of the world’s largest gold reserves. This comes after the government passed a law requiring the Swiss franc to be supported by gold. The new law was voted on after the country decided to sell some shares of gold. Although SNB has sold most of its gold reserves, the Bank holds about 10% of the Swiss francs in circulation with gold.

The second influential factor is the safe location enjoyed by the Swiss banking system. This is what has affected the positive relationship between the Swiss franc and gold prices. Gold reserves are said to act as a barrier to inflation, and for this reason, it is not surprising that Switzerland has faced very low inflation. Switzerland has been able to maintain its consumer price index at 0.5% for 25 years, with price levels in Switzerland remaining unchanged for 10 to 12 years beginning in 2008. The SNB tried to stimulate inflation or reduce the value of the CHF by lowering interest rates but the move did not yield any positive results. It was so motivated to bring about a change in the inflation rate that the bank sought to introduce a negative interest rate of -0.75%. This, too, proved ineffective. Thus Switzerland chose to operate at 0% interest rate. Switzerland is benefiting from gold prices as the custodian of higher gold reserves, revealing a positive relationship between the Swiss franc and gold prices.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has one of the largest gold reserves in the world. The latest reports suggest that SNB holds more than 1,000 tonnes of gold in its possession. In fact, before 2000 the country was in a gold standard when it was required by law that CHF had to be backed by this precious metal. This rule was eventually dropped after the referendum in 2000. This, in turn, allowed the Swiss National Bank to sell some of its gold holdings to invest those sums in other assets. However, despite those sales, SNB still retains a large number of precious metals in its reserves. In fact, some financial commentators even argue that if Switzerland were to reinstate the gold standard, SNB will be able to back at least 10% of Swiss Francs in circulation by its precious metal holdings.

As a result, when the gold price rises, the reserves of the Swiss National Bank gain more buying power and Swiss franc becomes more attractive to investors and currency traders. In order to better illustrate this relationship, let us take a closer look at this daily gold price chart:

As we can see from the image above, the XAU/USD has made some seesaw gains during the last 17 months of trading, rising from $1,454 to $2074 and trading now on above $1,778 level. This means that in this period the gold price in US dollar terms has raised more. Here the obvious question is: how did the Swiss franc respond to those developments? In order to answer this question, let us check this daily EUR/CHF chart:

As we can see from the above diagram, since spring 2019 the Swiss Franc has steadily appreciated against the Euro, with EUR/CHF falling from 1.0280 and reached the high 1.1507 and trading at 1.0715 on October 2021. During early June 2021 the pair tried to reverse course and break above the downward trend. However, after making some initial gains, the Euro lost momentum, with EUR/CHF giving up most of its recent gains and falling back. So as we can see from this example, there were instances where the Swiss franc has made some serious gains, benefiting from the rise of gold price.

Across the seven seas, Switzerland‘s currency, the Swiss franc, also has a strong link with gold. Using the dollar as base currency, the USD/CHF usually climbs when the price of gold slides. Conversely, the pair dips when the price of gold goes up. The precious metal gold is always positive correlated with CHF as more than 25% of Switzerland’s money is in gold reserves.

Gold has a negative correlation with USD/CHF. When gold goes up, USD/CHF goes down. When gold goes down, USD/CHF goes up.

Conclusion

The Swiss National Bank having large gold reserves is the main reason for the high degree of the positive correlation between CHF and the price of this precious metal. There is strong positive sentiment toward gold in Switzerland. As we can see, despite their obvious differences, gold and Swiss Franc do share some similarities. CHF has proven to be better at holding on to its purchasing power, than nearly all of the fiat currencies in the world. This led to long term appreciation of the currency against its peers. Therefore, the Swiss franc can be a very attractive investment for those investors who are more interested in preserving their purchasing power, rather than hunting for high yields. So this is why CHF is highly correlated with gold prices. Open account and explore this opportunity.

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