Fundamental view:

The Euro initially fell against the greenback in the first half of the week but later part of the week, risk aversion took over financial markets weighing on greenback and Euro closed with a weekly bull candle. US Policymakers are very cautious, however the Minutes of the Fed’s November meeting released on Wednesday showed that many participants were of the view that elevated prices could become more persistent and that the central bank should be prepared to taper further if needed. Whereas On the other hand, the European Central Bank Monetary Policy Accounts showed that the ECB is in no rush to change its monetary policy. The new corona virus variant outbreak also added to the risk aversion.

US GDP quarterly report on 24^th November  and Eurozone Retail sales quarterly report on 25^th November framed bearish trend whereas US Existing Home Sales data on 22^nd November and ECB Vice President de Guindos Speech on 23^rd November framed bullish trend for the pair in this week.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Chair Powell Speech at Nov 29, Eurozone GDP quarterly report, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Nov 30, ECB Non-monetary Policy Meeting, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Dec 01 and Nonfarm Payrolls at Dec 03.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.20% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1328 and low at 1.1186 showed a movement of 142 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A firm breakout below 1.1225 may make a fall to 1.1134 and then take a way down to 1.1083. Should 1.1367 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards to 1.1418 and 1.1509 respectively. In H4 chart, if breakout of the rising wedge is to the downside then bearish expectation is favored. Bearish harami formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.