Fundamental view:

Bitcoin seesawed against the US dollar during the trading course of the week. Bitcoin had a quite disappointing year till Jan 25. 2022, However it has 12% partial recovery to $38,100 on Jan. 26. Amidst Hawkish move from Fed weighing on Bitcoin, few other catalysts favors the Bitcoin. The Central bank has left the rate unchanged however he also made a notable change of tone toward the hawkish side. The major market mover was Fed Chair noting that he will not rule out rate increase at every meeting this year. He also opened the door to 50bp rate hikes rather than standard 25bp. 

In a tweet on Jan. 25, Mike McGlone who is senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, is eyeing Bitcoin’s position relative to its 20-week moving average, noting that historically, current levels have marked a turning point. “The fact that Bitcoin is an up-and-coming asset, with less than $1 trillion market cap vs. about $100 trillion of global equities, that got a bit extended may give the crypto an advantage,” he commented. His comments favors the Bitcoin. Elsewhere, Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, wants to expand in Russia and neighbouring states where it sees prospects for new regulations that will boost its business, an executive said.

Moreover, Russia – Ukraine geopolitical tension weighs on the market sentiment favoring the safehaven US dollar and in turn weighing of the Bitcoin. Amidst all the catalyst, traders are cautiously optimistic towards Bitcoin.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are ISM Manufacturing PMI at Feb 01, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Feb 02, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Feb 03 and Nonfarm Payrolls at Feb 04 for US.

BTC/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 11.88% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 38909.8 and low at 32968.5 showed a movement of 5941 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect BTC/USD to show a bullish trend. The Instrument is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 40024.8 may open a clean path towards 42437.9 and may take a way up to 45966.1. Should 34083.5 prove to be unreliable support, the BTCUSD may sink downwards 30555.3 and 28142.2 respectively. In H4 chart symmetrical triangle breakout upside favors prospects of a bullish trend. Bullish engulfing pattern constructs a bullish outlook for the pair in the upcoming week.