• The antipodean has slipped on a pullback in commodity prices as investors paused to reassess the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• Russia warns Western countries could face oil prices of over $300 per barrel, cuts to EU gas supply, weighs on the market sentiment.
• Australia’s NAB Business Confidence improved in February.

Australian dollar dips following the footprint of commodity prices as investors paused to reassess the Russia-Ukraine conflict after talks hardly advanced, with a strong U.S. dollar.

The dollar index held close to a 21-month peak hit on Monday, following news of a potential U.S. oil import ban on Russia.

Meanwhile, Russia warned that oil prices could surge to $300 a barrel and it might close the main gas pipeline to Germany if the West halts oil imports over the invasion of Ukraine as peace talks made little progress.

As a aid, The World Bank has approved $723 million in loans and grants for Ukraine to be transferred in the next few days. U.S. congressional negotiators neared a deal to provide Ukraine billions of dollars in emergency aid. The White House requested $10 billion.

Peace talks made very little progress. Negotiators make little progress Russian negotiators said they did not have positive developments to report following talks with Ukraine and warned not to expect the next round to bring a final result. Vladimir Medinsky said The talks “are not easy.”

Ukraine’s negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak said some small progress had been made on agreeing logistics for the evacuation of civilians, but no agreement was reached that significantly improves the broader situation.

Russia said, A fourth round will take place very soon. The Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers are expected to meet in Turkey on Thursday.

On the other hand, upbeat Business confidence offered some strength to Aussie. Reuters said “Tuesday’s survey from National Australia Bank (NAB) showed its index of business conditions rose 7 points to +9 in February, reversing all of January’s drop. The index of confidence climbed 9 points to +13, well above December’s low of -12.”

Besides Russia-Ukraine headlines, Market will watch speech from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe which is due on Tuesday. This may dictate the likely interest rate decision by the RBA in the coming monetary policy meeting. That said, comments from the highest chair of central banks bring uncertainty for the associated currency ahead of the event.

AUD/USD 4 Hour Chart:

Support: 0.7268 (S1), 0.7225 (S2), 0.7139 (S3).

Resistance: 0.7398 (R1), 0.7484 (R2), 0.7528 (R3).

Following the footprint of commodity prices, Australian dollar trades low ahead of RBA Lowe speech. We expect a bearish trend for AUD/USD.