Fundamental view:

US Federal Budget Balance at July 13 and US Industrial Production monthly report at July 15 created a bearish move for the pair whereas NAB Business Confidence at July 14 supported AUD and US Unemployment Claims at 16^th June acted as a catalyst for the downtrend move for dollar and boosted bullish move for the pair. Improvement in the cases of corona virus and steps taken by the country for economic recovery creates optimism for Aussie among investors.

US – Sino tension and Fear of second wave of corona virus puts dollar under pressure in the past week AUD hence AUD/USD showed a bullish trend.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are RBA Gov Lowe Speaks and Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at Jul 21, MI Leading Index, US Crude Oil Inventories at Jul 22, National Australia Bank (NAB) Quarterly Business Confidence, US Unemployment Claims at Jul 23, US Flash Manufacturing PMI at Jul 24.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.53% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7037 and low at 0.6921 showed a movement of 116 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend. The MACD trades to the downside and the currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average. A solid breakout below 0.6932 may open a clean path towards 0.6868 and may take a way down to 0.6816. Should 0.7048 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7101 and 0.7165 respectively. In H4 chart, formation of an Inverse head and shoulders pattern chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted 3 white soldiers formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.