Fundamental view:

Consumer Confidence of US at 1st July 2020 created a bearish move for the pair whereas Unemployment rate and President Trump Speaks at 2nd July 2020 acted as a catalyst for the uptrend move for dollar and boosted bullish move for the pair. Japan’s manufacturing PMI report is favourable for yen but the rising cases of covid 19 cases do not create confidence among investors.

Reports like Tankan Manufacturing Index and Housing starts yearly report portrayed the struggling face of Japan thus last week USD/JPY reflected a bullish trend.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Jul 06, JPY Bank Lending yearly report at Jul 07, JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment at Jul 08, JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders yearly report, USD Unemployment Claims at Jul 09, and USD Core Producer Price Index (PPI) monthly report at Jul 10.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View: 

Last week’s high was 0.67% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 108.16 and low at 107.04 showed a movement of 112 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the Downside. A solid breakout below 106.97 may open a clean path towards 106.45 and may take a way down to 105.85. Should 108.03 prove to be unreliable resistance, the USDJPY may raise upwards 108.69 and 109.21 respectively. In H4 chart, Formation of rising wedge pattern indicates reversal of the trend creating prospects of a bearish trend Along with a bearish spinning top formation braces our expectation.