Fundamental view:

EU Economic Forecasts report of the last week at 7th July 2020 and US Crude Oil Inventories at 8th July acted as a catalyst for the downtrend move for dollar and created a bullish move for the pair whereas USD Unemployment Claims at 9th July created bearish move. The increasing cases of Covid 19 in US have led Greenback to lose its strength which has boosted EUR against USD in the past week.

COVID 19 cases in US has reached 3 million last week which is a setback  on the hopes of economic recovery on the other hand The euro is strengthened by the economic recovery in Europe, lower political risks. Hence EUR/USD showed a bullish trend last week.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are USD Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) at Jul 14, Euro group Meetings, USD Treasury Currency Report at Jul 15, European Central Bank Press Conference, Unemployment Claims at Jul 16, and USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment at Jul 17.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.60% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1370 and low at 1.1241 showed a movement of 129 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. While the currency pair is trading above the 100 Simple Moving Average but the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1234 may open a clean path towards 1.1171 and may take a way down to 1.1103. Should 1.1365 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.1433 and 1.1496 respectively. Chart formation of a three drives pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Shooting star formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.