Fundamental view:

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 6^th July and US Unemployment Claims released at 9^th July acted as a catalyst for the uptrend move for dollar and boosted bearish move for the pair whereas Australia ANZ Job Advertisements monthly report at 6^th July and US crude oil inventories at 8^th July created a bullish move for the pair. The rising cases of Covid19 cases weakened dollar against Aussie.

Last week showed signs of a gradual improvement in Australia creating a favorable condition for Aussie and hence last week showed a bullish trend for AUD/USD.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence at Jul 14, AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment, USD Treasury Currency Report at Jul 15, AUD Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Claims at Jul 16, and USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment at Jul 17.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.71% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7000 and low at 0.6921 showed a movement of 79 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  While the currency pair is trading above the 100 Simple Moving Average but the MACD trades to the downside.   A solid breakout below 0.6912 may open a clean path towards 0.6877 and may take a way down to 0.6833. Should 0.6991 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7035 and 0.7070 respectively. In H4 chart, formation of a double top pattern favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted Bearish Engulfing formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.