Fundamental view:

The Euro initially fell in the week initially but managed to overcome and formed a slightly bullish candle first and a bullish rally continued till the week. US Unemployment Claims bearish moment on 13th August created a bearish atmosphere for the pair whereas US JOLTS Job Openings on 10th August, Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW Economic Sentiment on 11th August favored bullish atmosphere for the pair.

The Market has surged higher in the past week and we expect it would be bit conscious in the upcoming week as the bullish rally is overextended now.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Euro group Meetings at Aug 17, US Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Meeting Minutes, OPEC-JMMC Meetings at Aug 19, and Unemployment Claims at Aug 20. Europe Flash Manufacturing PMI at Aug 21.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.43% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1864 and low at 1.1711 showed a movement of 153 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1746 may open a clean path towards 1.1652 and may take a way down to 1.1593. Should 1.1899 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.1958 and 1.2053 respectively. Chart formation of a Bearish butterfly pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Spinning top formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.