Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar has rallied rather significantly during the course of the week, especially on Friday as the US dollar is getting absolutely pummeled. US HPI monthly report and US Crude Oil Inventories  on 26^th August created bearish environment for the pair whereas Australia Private Capital Expenditure quarterly report on 27^th August and Wholesale Inventories monthly report on 28^th August created bullish environment for the pair.

Aussie will climb more until greenback gets any support from Federal Reserve. With the Federal Reserve essentially admitting during the trading session on Thursday that they were probably years away from raising interest rates, this puts even more downward pressure on the greenback.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are RBA Rate Statement, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Sep 01, Australia GDP quarterly report, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at Sep 02, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, at Sep 03, US Unemployment Rate at Sep 04.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.24% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7366 and low at 0.7150 showed a movement of 215 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bullish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 0.7437 may open a clean path towards 0.7509 and may take a way up to 0.7652. Should 0.7222 prove to be unreliable support, the AUDUSD may sink downwards 0.7078 and 0.7007 respectively. In H4 chart semi-W pattern breakout favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted three outside up candle formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.