Fundamental view:

The Euro has initially tried to break above the 1.20 level, but then rolled over to show signs of weakness. The week has been very volatile, but when you look at the longer-term trend, it does make sense that we need to consolidate in this area. Europe German Prelim monthly report on 31st August, Europe PPI monthly report on 2nd September and Unemployment Rate on 4^th August created a bullish trend for the pair whereas Core CPI Flash on 1^st September and Spanish Unemployment Change on 2^nd September and Europe German Factory Orders monthly report on 4^th August created a bearish atmosphere for the pair.
 
In the upcoming week, market is likely to see a lot of indecision at this point, because we are getting towards the election in the United States and of course there are a lot of concerns when it comes to the global financial situation and what the central banks are going to be doing.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism at Sep 08, Europe Monetary Policy Statement, Unemployment Claims, Crude Oil Inventories at Sep 10, Euro group Meetings, and US Core CPI monthly report at Sep 11.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.77% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2011 and low at 1.1781 showed a movement of 230 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1743 may open a clean path towards 1.1647 and may take a way down to 1.1513. Should 1.1973 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2107 and 1.2203 respectively. Chart formation of a Pennant pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.