Fundamental view:

The Euro went back and forth during the course of the week, showing signs of indecision. Several central banks had monetary policy meetings these days, the US Federal Reserve included but were far from being shining stars. In fact, the impact of the pandemic on economies, and the uncertainty on what’s to come in that front, have policymakers as clueless as speculators. Europe Industrial Production on 14^th September, German ZEW Economic Sentiment on 15^th September and Europe Trade Balance on 16^th September created uptrend for the pair whereas US Empire State Manufacturing Index, Import Prices on 15^th September and US Core Retail Sales on 16^th September created downtrend for the pair.

US dollar looks likely to find some buying, based upon the US Dollar Index and we expect a bearish trend in the upcoming week.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Chair Powell Testimony at Sep 22, Euro Markit Manufacturing PMI, US Markit Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Sep 23, EU Leaders Summit at Sep 24, and US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report at Sep 25.  

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.14% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1900 and low at 1.1737 showed a movement of 163 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout below 1.1752 may open a clean path towards 1.1663 and may take a way down to 1.1590.  Should 1.1915 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.1989 and 1.2078 respectively. Breakout of a symmetrical triangle pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish harami formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.