Fundamental view:

The Euro has rallied during the course of the week to slam into the previous uptrend line but have given back quite a bit of the gains. The main market motor these days was the risk-related sentiment, centred around a US stimulus bill and a post-Brexit trade deal. The cherry on the cake was the announcement this Friday that US President Donald Trump and wife Melania contracted COVID-19.

 US CB Consumer Confidence on 29th Sept, US Final GDP quarterly report on 30^th Sept favored downtrend for the pair whereas Europe German Import Prices monthly report on 30^th Sept, Europe Italian Monthly Unemployment on 1^st Oct favored uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Oct 05 , Euro group Meeting, Fed Chair Powell Speech at Oct 06, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Oct 07,  ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and US Initial Jobless Claims at Oct 08.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.86% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1769 and low at 1.1615 showed a movement of 154 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1631 may open a clean path towards 1.1546 and may take a way down to 1.1476. Should 1.1785 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.1855 and 1.1940 respectively. Chart formation of a bearish gartley pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Spinning top formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.