Fundamental view:

Optimism on Brexit with pessimism on fiscal talks – or the other way around – is what moved GBP/USD, and will likely continue moving forward. PM Johnson’s critical weekend phone call, the Fed minutes, UK GDP, and US politics are all eyed.

Net Lending to Individuals monthly report on 29^th Sept, Britain BRC Shop Price Index yearly report on 30^th Sept created a bearish trend whereas Revised Business Investment quarterly report on 30^th Sept, Non-Farm Employment Change on 2^nd Oct created a bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Oct 05, Fed Chair Powell Speech at Oct 06, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Oct 07, US Initial Jobless Claims at Oct 08, UK Manufacturing Production, and UK GDP monthly report at Oct 09.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.09% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2978 and low at 1.2751 showed a movement of 227 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.2799 may open a clean path towards 1.2661 and may take a way down to 1.2572. Should 1.3027 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.3116 and 1.3254 respectively. In H4 chart, if breakout of the expending triangle is to the downside then bearish expectation is favored. Also to be noted bearish harami formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.