Fundamental view:

The pair rallied significantly during the week, as traders are looking for that cheap money coming out of the Federal Reserve or perhaps stimulus from Congress.  The president’s corona virus episode gripped global headlines. After receiving strong medications and spending three days in the hospital, Trump returned triumphantly to the White House and sounded upbeat. His doctors insisted he is still “not out of the woods,” and fears receded. The concerns that his situation is worse than the strongman’s image he would like to portray pressurizes the dollar.  US Trade Balance on 6^th October and Europe French Trade Balance & French Trade on 7^th October favored bearish move for the pair whereas Europe Final Services PMI & Retail Sales monthly report on 5^th Oct and US Unemployment Claims on 8^th October favored bullish move for the pair.

After Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Trump’s surprise urged lawmakers to approve further stimulus and painted a worrying picture of the economy. While the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index beat estimates, COVID-19 cases are rising in most US states, and without government support, the recovery could be further derailed. Amidst all these catalysts we expect an bullish trend for the pair in the upcoming week.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week Balance are ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator, Federal Budget, US Core PPI monthly report at Oct 13, US Initial Jobless Claims, EU Leaders Summit Oct 15, and US Retail Sales monthly report at Oct 16.  

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.52% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1830 and low at 1.1708 showed a movement of 122 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1.1870 may open a clean path towards 1.1911 and may take a way up to 1.1992. Should 1.1748 prove to be unreliable support, the EURUSD may sink downwards 1.1667 and 1.1626 respectively. Chart formation of an ascending scallop pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bullish trend. Spinning top formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bullish trend.