Fundamental view:

Euro fell early last week even as hopes of a corona virus vaccine raised the tantalizing prospect of a global economic recovery and prompted a move by investors out of safe havens like the US Dollar into more risky assets such as stocks. By Thursday, this optimism had already started to fade and that raises the prospect that the decline in EUR/USD could be extended this coming week, particularly as the ECB still seems certain to loosen monetary policy next month.

Europe German Trade Balance & Sentix Investor Confidence on 9^th November and Unemployment Claims on 12^th November favored bullish trend and  German ZEW Economic Sentiment on 10^th November favored bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index at Nov 16, US Retail Sales monthly report at Nov 17, ECB Non-monetary Policy Meeting, US Building Permits at Nov 18, EU Leaders Summit, US Initial Jobless Claims at Nov 19, and G20 Meetings at Nov 20.  

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.24% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1920 and low at 1.1745 showed a movement of 175 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1745 may open a clean path towards 1.1658 and may take a way down to 1.1570. Should 1.1919 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2007 and 1.2094 respectively. Chart formation of a pennant pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Spinning top formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.