Fundamental view:

Australian dollar finished higher last week, underpinned by increased demand for higher-risks assets on increased hopes for a faster than expected end to the coronavirus pandemic after Pfizer announced the development of a vaccine that tested at 90% effective. That news spiked the Aussie higher early in the week then investors held on the rest of the week as market participants questioned the timing of the release of any vaccines and the distribution methods. Furthermore, COVID-19 cases continued to rise at a rapid rate in the United States, threatening to derail the global economic recovery.

US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism on 10th November and US CPI monthly report on 12^th November favored bullish trend for the pair whereas US Federal Budget Balance on 12^th November favored bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are RBA Governor Lowe Speech, NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index at Nov 16, US Retail Sales monthly report at Nov 17, US Building Permits at Nov 18, Australia Employment Change, US Initial Jobless Claims at Nov 19, and G20 Meetings at Nov 20.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.69% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7340 and low at 0.7221 showed a movement of 119 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7213 may open a clean path towards 0.7158 and may take a way down to 0.7094. Should 0.7331 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7395 and 0.7450 respectively. In H4 chart inverted cup and handle pattern formation favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted shooting star formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.