Fundamental view:

The EUR/USD pair reached 1.1949 this week, a fresh 2-month high, retaining most of its gains heading into the weekend. The dollar did not earn speculative interest. It was an intense week, even though the FX price action didn’t reflect it. Among other things, US President Donald Trump has agreed to begin a formal transition with President-elect Joe Biden´s staff to take office. At the same time, he vowed to keep contesting the election result. 

Meanwhile, the coronavirus pandemic is out of control in all US states. Hospitalizations in the country have been hitting records for seventeen days in-a-row, currently at 90K. As of Friday, the country has a sad record of having reported roughly 270K deaths.

Europe Flash Services PMI & US Flash Manufacturing PMI on 23^rd Aug and Europe German GfK Consumer Climate on 26^th Aug created bearish trend for the pair whereas Europe German Final GDP quarterly report on 24^th Aug and  Europe German Import Prices m/m & French Consumer Spending on 27^th Aug created bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are OPEC Meetings at Nov 30, Euro Economic and Financial Affairs Council Meeting, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed Chair Powell Testimony at Dec 01, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change at Dec 02, Euro Retail Sales monthly report, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Dec 03, and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Dec 04.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.58% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1962 and low at 1.1800 showed a movement of 162 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1.1979 may open a clean path towards 1.2052 and may take a way up to 1.2141. Should 1.1816 prove to be unreliable support, the EURUSD may sink downwards 1.1727 and 1.1654 respectively. Chart formation of an ascending triangle pattern breakout in H4 chart sets prospects for a bullish trend. Bullish Hammer formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bullish trend.