Fundamental view:

The Euro broke higher during the course of the week, slicing through the 1.21 level, a level that was last seen in April 2018. Market players had loads to digest this week, starting with a quite encouraging factor. On Tuesday, a group of US bipartisan lawmakers offered a new $908 billion COVID-19 relief package. Talks between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell stalled ahead of the presidential election, but negotiations made an explosive comeback, as the new amount triples the previous highest proposal. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had urged Congress to approve an aid program, to support the economy through the winter. Stimulus-related news fell short of boosting equities, as Wall Street spent most of the week in the red.

In the past week, Italian Manufacturing PMI on 1st Dec and US Natural Gas Storage on 4^th Dec created bearish atmosphere for the pair whereas Europe Spanish Flash CPI yearly report on 30^th Nov and US ISM Manufacturing PMI on 1^st Dec created bullish atmosphere for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Euro Employment Change quarterly report, Euro GDP quarterly report, US Nonfarm Productivity quarterly at Dec 08, US JOLTS Job Openings at Dec 09, ECB Interest Rate Decision, Initial Jobless Claims at Dec 10, and US CPI monthly report at Dec 11.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.80% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2177 and low at 1.1923 showed a movement of 254 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1970 may open a clean path towards 1.1819 and may take a way down to 1.1716. Should 1.2224 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2327 and 1.2478 respectively. Chart formation of a rising wedge pattern breakout in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Harami formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.