Fundamental view:

The Euro has gone back and forth during the course of the week and ended weaker against greenback in the end of the week. One of the biggest sticking points of the last week is the fact that the stimulus talks in America are going on forever, and it seems as if there is plenty of contentious behavior between McConnell and Pelosi, as well as many other members. The stimulus package has been getting smaller over time.

In the past week, Europe German Industrial Production m/m & Sentix Investor Confidence on 7^th Dec and Europe French Industrial Production on 10^th Dec created bullish trend for the pair whereas Europe Revised GDP quarterly report & US Revised Nonfarm Productivity quarterly report on 8^th Dec and Europe German Trade Balance on 9^th Dec created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Euro Markit Manufacturing PMI, US Retail Sales monthly report, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Dec 16, US Building Permits, Euro Core CPI monthly report and US Initial Jobless Claims at Dec 17.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.09% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2166 and low at 1.2058 showed a movement of 108 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.2061 may open a clean path towards 1.2006 and may take a way down to 1.1954. Should 1.2169 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2221 and 1.2276 respectively. Chart formation of a bearish shark pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.